Questions
Every answer on this site in one place. Each one is quoted from its page, with a link to it.
Common questions
Who will we contract with?
One person. The legal contracting party is named in writing, in the engagement agreement, before anything is paid. We provide whatever identity checks your due diligence needs. The pen name is how the research is published, not a contract term.
Does any account data leave our systems?
No. Your staff run the script inside your systems; we receive only what it prints. We never need access to your systems.
What if the number is bad for us?
Then that is the number. You can keep it private, and we publish nothing from the engagement. The fee is unchanged.
Can you publish without our consent?
No. You review anything describing your data first and may decline publication outright. We may say only that an engagement took place, without naming you or the figure.
Isn’t this a kind of audit?
No. It is a measurement with its limits stated. Please don’t describe it as audited, certified or verified.
What if we stop halfway?
No cancellation fees. The Pilot is refundable in full until data kick-off, the day your staff first run the script on your records. After that, it is refunded if your extract can’t be made to run, or through the reproduction refund. Snapshot, Memo and Outcomes pack are paid 50% on acceptance and 50% within 7 days of delivery; if either side stops, completed work is billed pro rata.
How do we pay?
Invoiced in USD; bank transfer, or in Canada the CAD equivalent by Interac e-Transfer. Card payments are accepted through a secure Stripe link, sent only after you accept the scope.
Can we talk on a call?
We work by email only, so every answer is in writing and can go straight to your compliance file.
Why is there no client list?
There are no paying clients yet. A firm that chooses to publish its result will be listed, with its consent.
Can we test it first?
Yes. The licence lets any organisation run it on synthetic or test data for 32 days, and the folder includes a generator that writes a test file. partner/ on GitHub
Are you a data processor for us?
We receive no user records; only aggregate counts for the study you agree to.
What does it cost after year one?
Continuing is optional; any fee is agreed in writing before renewal.
Will you grade our users?
No. It is a measurement. It is not a grade or a badge, and it is not advice.
Is this investment advice?
No. It describes your own past trades. It does not recommend any security, trade, size or exit, and past results do not predict future results.
What does the re-test do?
It runs the same report on a newer export of the same account, 30 to 60 days after your first report. Your re-test runs on the version of the report that is live when you run it; every change is dated on the corrections page.
How do I buy it?
On the pricing page: read the “Before you pay” summary, then pay $39 by card on Stripe’s page. The report opens in your browser right after payment.
Can I get a refund?
Yes. A full refund if you ask by email within 14 days of buying, even if you have already run your report. Trader terms
What can I use today for free?
The free trade-stats dashboard reads the same files and shows the core numbers: win rate, profit factor, drawdown and streaks, in your browser.
What exactly do I get?
Up to five habits measured and described in your own trades, with the dollar totals of the matching trades; up to two of them tested against chance in this version; plus one re-test 30 to 60 days after your first report.
From: Pricing, Questions
What does “tested against chance” mean?
We check whether a habit’s pattern in your trades could just be luck. The report says “distinguishable from noise” when it is unlikely to be luck, and “not distinguishable” when it could be. Up to two habits get this test; the others are described only.
From: Pricing, Questions
What does the re-test do?
It runs the same report on a newer export of the same account, 30 to 60 days after your first report. Your re-test runs on the version of the report that is live when you run it; every change is dated on the corrections page.
From: Pricing, Questions
Which files work?
MetaTrader 5 or 4, IBKR and Tradovate exports (all in beta), or the donttrade CSV template.
From: Pricing, Questions
Where does my file go?
It stays in your browser. Your browser sends our server only stripped trade numbers: open and close times, buy or sell, relative size, the realised result, a random symbol number and a scrambled fingerprint of each row. No name, account number or ticker is sent. The numbers are not kept; we keep only a scrambled fingerprint of each trade row from your first report, so a re-test can be matched to the same history, and we delete it on the dates in our privacy notice.
From: Pricing, Questions
Is this investment advice?
No. It describes your own past trades. It does not tell you what to trade, how much, or when to exit.
From: Pricing, Questions
Do you take payment by email?
No. We never ask for card details by email. Cancellation and refund terms
From: Pricing, Questions
What happens next
Within 1 business day you get a reply with a one-page scope, our data terms and the fixed price. Nothing is owed until you accept the scope. Then pay by bank transfer, or Interac e-Transfer in Canada. Card payments are accepted through a secure Stripe link, sent only after you accept the scope. Your staff run the published script and send back what it prints; you get the result within 5 business days of payment and a clean run.
Prices and payment
Free tools
$0 Trade stats, heatmap, drawdown and more No account, no card Your file is read in your browser Try the free tools →
From: Pricing, Free tools
Habit report
$39 USD, one time · no sales tax Up to five habits measured in your trades Up to two tested against chance The dollar total for each habit One free re-test, 30 to 60 days later Pay by card on Stripe’s page Get the habit report — $39
From: Pricing, Habit report
Terms and refunds
Prices
Firm prices are in US dollars (USD), before any applicable sales tax. Pricing
From: Terms, Prices
Payment
Every firm engagement is invoiced by email. Snapshot, Memo and Outcomes pack: 50% on acceptance; 50% within 7 days of delivery. Pilot: 100% on acceptance. Quarterly re-check: 25% of the price of the engagement being repeated (for example $1,500 for a Memo), payable in advance. Invoices are in USD. Pay by bank transfer, or, in Canada, the CAD equivalent by Interac e-Transfer at the Bank of Canada daily rate on the invoice date. Transfer and bank fees are paid by the sender. Card payments are accepted through a secure Stripe link, sent only after you accept the scope. We never ask for card details by email.
From: Terms, Payment
Delivery
Delivery times are in business days. The clock starts when payment is received and the script’s output comes back without validation errors. The clock pauses while a question to you is open.
From: Terms, Delivery
Cancellations and refunds
No cancellation fees, for firms or traders.
Firms
The Pilot is refundable in full until data kick-off, the day your staff first run the script on your records. After that, it is refunded if your extract can’t be made to run, or through the reproduction refund above. Snapshot, Memo and Outcomes pack are paid 50% on acceptance and 50% within 7 days of delivery. Either side may stop in writing. If either side stops, completed work is billed pro rata. A “no measurable effect” answer is a finished deliverable.
From: Terms, Firms
Publication and use of our name
Nothing about your data is published without your consent. You may say a figure was “computed with donttrade’s published script (version stated in the memo) and written up by donttrade under a fixed-scope agreement”, and nothing stronger: never audited, certified or verified.
What this is not
It is not investment advice. It is not an audit, and we issue no badge or seal. donttrade measures your own past trades. It is not investment advice, does not recommend any security, trade, size or exit, and is not registered as an adviser. Past results do not predict future results.
From: Terms, What this is not
Liability
This paragraph does not apply to consumers in Quebec. Our liability is capped at the fees paid for the product or engagement concerned. We are not responsible for trading decisions you make or their results. For everyone: nothing in these terms limits rights you have under consumer protection law that cannot be excluded.
From: Terms, Liability
The engagement agreement
Every firm engagement is governed by a short written agreement (scope, data terms and the licence for the engagement), sent with the scope for you to review before you pay. A blank template is available on request by email.
Governing law
These terms are governed by the laws of the Province of Ontario and the federal laws of Canada applicable there, and disputes go to the courts of Ontario. If you are a consumer, this does not take away the protection of the mandatory rules of the law where you live, or your right to go to the courts there.
From: Terms, Governing law
Privacy
This site
The site is hosted on Cloudflare Pages; before 24 Oct 2026 it was hosted on GitHub Pages. Cloudflare receives visitors’ IP addresses to deliver the pages and protect the site; see Cloudflare’s privacy policy. This site sets no cookies. This site runs no analytics. Your light/dark choice is stored only in your own browser. If you buy the habit report, your access key is stored there too; keep your restore link, because clearing the site’s data removes the key.
From: Privacy, This site
The free tools
The free tools (trade stats, the challenge simulator and the calculators) read your file and your numbers inside your browser tab. Those pages block outgoing requests, so your file is not uploaded and we never see it.
From: Privacy, The free tools
The paid habit report
Your browser sends our server only a stripped list of numbers: open and close times, buy or sell, relative size, the realised result, a random symbol number and a scrambled fingerprint of each row. It contains no name, account number or ticker. The server runs on Cloudflare and may be outside Canada. It uses the numbers to build your report, sends the report back, and does not keep the numbers: of those numbers it keeps only a scrambled fingerprint of each trade row from your first report, as described below. Request logging is off. What the server keeps: a purchase record under a scrambled code: …
Forms, email and payments
Forms are sent through Web3Forms, which emails each submission to us; it is hosted on AWS and keeps a 30-day history. The firm and partner forms ask for a work email and firm (required), and your role and what you want measured (optional). No phone numbers are collected. Email is handled by Gmail (Google). We keep form emails there. The newsletter runs on Substack; see Substack’s privacy policy. Card payments (the firm Pilot, and the habit report) are handled by Stripe; donttrade never sees full card numbers. For payment data Stripe acts as an independent controller; see Stripe’s privacy policy. If you buy the habit report: Stripe shows us the name and email address you enter at checkout. …
What we do with what you send
We use it to reply, scope the work and invoice. Enquiries that don’t lead to an engagement are deleted within 12 months. Engagement and purchase records are kept for as long as Canadian tax law requires (six years). Addresses given before launch for the one launch email are used for that email only, then deleted unless the person buys. Nothing is sold. We use these providers only to run the site, email, the newsletter, forms and card payments.
Client data
For firm engagements we never receive account records, only the aggregate counts the script prints.
From: Privacy, Client data
Your rights
You can ask by email to see, correct or delete your information, or for a copy in a common format. We reply within 30 days. You can also complain to the Office of the Privacy Commissioner of Canada, in Quebec to the Commission d’accès à l’information, in the EU to your country’s data protection authority, and in the UK to the Information Commissioner’s Office. If a privacy breach creates a real risk of significant harm to you, we tell you. Version 2026-10-25.
From: Privacy, Your rights
The free tools
How much gain recovers a drawdown?
Divide the drawdown by one minus the drawdown. A 10 percent drawdown takes about an 11.1 percent gain to recover, 20 percent takes 25 percent, 30 percent takes about 42.9 percent, and 50 percent takes 100 percent.
How is maximum drawdown calculated?
Track the running high of the account’s closed balance after each trade, then measure the largest fall from any high to a later low. The tool reports it in money and, with a starting balance, as a percentage of the high.
Why does my platform show a different maximum drawdown?
Platforms often include open-trade equity, which moves between trades. A trade file holds closed trades, so this page measures closed-balance drawdown, which can be smaller.
How is the length of a drawdown counted?
In trades, from the trade after the high up to and including the trade that brought equity back to the high. In calendar days, from the close of the trade that set the high to the close of the trade that recovered it. A drawdown that has not recovered is counted to the last trade in the file.
Is my file uploaded?
No. The analysis runs in your browser tab, and the page’s security policy blocks it from making network requests. You can watch your browser’s Network tab stay empty while it works.
Is this investment advice?
No. It measures your own past trades and does not recommend any security, trade, size or exit. Past results do not predict future results.
How is lot size calculated?
Lot size equals the amount you are prepared to lose divided by the stop distance times the value of one point for one lot. For example, a risk amount of 200 with a 40-point stop and 1 per point per lot gives 5 lots. The page shows this formula filled in with your inputs.
Where do I find the value per point for gold or an index?
Your platform’s contract specification lists the contract size and tick value for each symbol. In MT5, right-click the symbol in Market Watch and open Specification. The value per point can differ between brokers for the same symbol name, so use your own broker’s figure.
What risk percentage do other traders use?
The calculator does not suggest one. How much you risk is your decision, and this page does not recommend any size. It only converts the amount you choose into lots.
Why is the loss at the rounded size lower than what I entered?
Brokers trade in fixed lot steps, often 0.01 lots. If the exact size falls between steps, the page rounds down and shows the loss at the rounded size. If even one step is larger than your risk amount, the page says so instead of rounding up quietly.
Does it include spread, commission or slippage?
No. It sizes from the stop distance you enter. If you want costs included, add the spread to your stop distance; commission and slippage are not modelled.
Is this a prediction of whether I will pass?
No. It shows how your past trading days would have fared under the rules you entered if they came in a different order. Future days can differ from past ones, and past results do not predict future results.
Why resample days instead of single trades?
Daily loss limits depend on how losses bunch within a day. Drawing whole days keeps that bunching, while drawing single trades would spread a bad morning across many days and make daily limits look safer than they were.
How many trading days do I need in the file?
The simulation runs with any number, but with fewer than 30 trading days the page warns that the results lean heavily on a few days. More history gives a steadier picture.
Why are my results the same every time?
The random number generator uses a fixed seed, so anyone can reproduce a result from the same inputs. Change the seed to see how much the answer moves.
Which firms’ rules does it include?
None are built in or named. Enter the numbers from your own firm’s current rules, because rules change and vary by account type.
Is my file uploaded?
No. The file is read in this tab and all 10,000 runs happen in your browser. The page’s security policy blocks outgoing requests.
How do you calculate risk-reward ratio?
Divide the distance from entry to target by the distance from entry to stop. An entry at 100, stop at 98 and target at 106 risks 2 to make 6, which is 3R.
At what win rate does a ratio break even?
Break-even win rate equals 1 divided by 1 plus the reward-to-risk ratio, before costs. At 1R it is 50 percent, at 2R about 33 percent, and at 3R 25 percent.
What is expectancy in R?
Expectancy is the average result per trade measured in units of risk. It equals win rate times average win in R, minus loss rate times average loss in R. This calculator counts every win as the R multiple and every loss as 1R. A positive figure means trades with those numbers make more than they lose on average.
Why is a realised ratio often lower than the planned one?
Exits rarely happen exactly at the stop or target. Early exits, partial closes, slippage and fees all move the realised figure. The trade stats page shows the average win and average loss your own trade file actually produced.
Is a higher risk-reward ratio always better?
Not on its own. A higher ratio usually comes with a lower win rate, and what matters is the combination. This page shows the arithmetic and does not recommend any ratio.
Is this investment advice?
No. It is arithmetic on the numbers you enter and does not recommend any security, trade, size or exit. Past results do not predict future results.
Is my trade file uploaded?
No. The file is read and analysed by code running in this browser tab, and the page’s security policy blocks it from making network requests. Open your browser’s developer tools, choose the Network tab, and watch it stay empty during the analysis.
Which files does it read?
MT5 and MT4 history reports saved as HTML, IBKR Flex Query trade files and Tradovate order exports (all in beta), and a CSV with one row per fill or per round trip. If your platform is not listed, copy your trades into the CSV template above.
What is a good profit factor?
Profit factor is gross profit divided by gross loss; above 1 means the trades in the file made more than they lost. There is no universal good number, and a high figure from a small sample is often luck. If there are no losing trades the page says so instead of printing a number.
Why do my numbers differ from my platform’s report?
The tool counts a trade from flat to flat on each symbol, takes fees off the result when the file includes them, and leaves out positions still open at the end of the file. A note on the results says when rows were skipped or hedged positions were found.
Is this investment advice?
No. It measures your own past trades and does not recommend any security, trade, size or exit. Past results do not predict future results.
Why do some cells hold so few trades?
Trades spread over up to 168 weekday and hour cells, and many hours simply have few. Choose two-, three- or four-hour blocks to put more trades in each cell.
Why does the page not mark the best and worst hours?
When you compare many cells at once, some will look unusual by luck alone. The top or bottom cell of a large grid is often one of those lucky cells, so this page describes every cell and picks none of them out.
Which time zone are my trades in?
MT5 and MT4 reports use the broker’s server time, which is often two or three hours ahead of UTC and can shift with daylight saving. The page reads times exactly as written in the file; the shift moves them by whole hours, and the page shows the first and last open times so you can check them against what you remember.
Does this tell me the best time to trade?
No. It describes when your own past trades did better or worse. A cell that looks good or bad is a description of your history, not a forecast, and this page does not recommend when to trade.
Is my file uploaded?
No. The analysis runs in your browser tab, and the page’s security policy blocks it from making network requests. You can watch your browser’s Network tab stay empty while it works.
Is this investment advice?
No. It measures your own past trades and does not recommend any security, trade, size or exit. Past results do not predict future results.
Words the studies use
Disposition effect
The tendency to sell positions that are up more readily than positions that are down. Named by Shefrin and Statman (1985); measured on brokerage records by Odean (1998). Source: Shefrin & Statman (1985); Odean (1998)
PGR — proportion of gains realised
In Odean’s method: on the days a trader sells something, the share of their winning positions they actually sold, realised gains ÷ (realised gains + paper gains). The figures in this site’s public-panel study count every day a position is held instead, so there PGR is a daily rate: the share of held winning positions closed that day. Levels from the two conventions are not comparable; ratios are approximately comparable. Source: Odean (1998)
PLR — proportion of losses realised
The same share for losing positions: realised losses ÷ (realised losses + paper losses). If PGR is bigger than PLR, gains are being realised more readily than losses. The same two conventions apply as for PGR. Source: Odean (1998)
Paper gain / paper loss
A position that is up (or down) and was not sold that day. In Odean’s method only days on which the trader sold something else count; in this site’s public-panel study every held day counts. Source: Odean (1998)
Realised gain / realised loss
A position sold that day while it was up (or down). Source: Odean (1998)
Qualifying sale day
A day on which an account closed at least one position. In Odean’s method and in the client script (partner_disposition.py), only these days count, so a trader who rarely trades is not scored as disciplined. The public-panel study counts every held day instead; see PGR. Source: partner/ README
Orphan close
A closed position with no earlier day on which it was held as a paper position. A few are normal (positions opened and closed the same day); a majority means the export did not join correctly, and the script refuses it. Source: partner/ README
From: Glossary, Orphan close
Denominator
Exactly who or what was counted underneath a percentage. Two honest studies can report very different levels because their denominators differ, which is why the ratio is the thing to compare. Source: this site’s studies
From: Glossary, Denominator
95% interval
A range that, by a stated method, would contain the true value in 95% of repeated samples. It shows how precisely the data pins a number down. Source: NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook
From: Glossary, 95% interval
t statistic
An estimate divided by its standard error. Large values mean the estimate is far from zero relative to its noise; with very large samples it gets large even for small effects, so it is not a measure of size. Source: NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook
From: Glossary, t statistic
Form 4
The filing a company insider makes with the SEC after buying or selling the company’s shares. Source: Investor.gov
From: Glossary, Form 4